Week 50
I wish climate change could decide what it wants to be. One moment there is snow, the next high wind, then flooding, followed by drought. The other week Scotland even had an earthquake[i]. Gone are the days when I could predict the weather. That is now a thing of the past. Meanwhile the weather forecasters are frequently wrong and change their minds in a jiffy. The only forecast I can truly believe is the one I see from my window. I thank the Almighty that my land has a pond. I look at it each morning to see if there is rainfall. If there is, on go my waterproofs. If the pond’s surface is still, I simply wear normal clothes and my waterproofs stay indoors.
Researchers from Stanford University[ii] have looked at this and have shown that rising temperatures can intensify the unpredictability of weather in Earth’s midlatitudes[iii]. It seems my distrust of weather forecasts is reasonable, although the UK’s Met Office does stand above the crowd. They claim that as a measure of their progress, 92.5% of their next day temperature forecasts are accurate within 2° Celsius and 92% of their next day wind speed forecasts are correct within 5 knots[iv]. A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80% of the time and a five-day forecast approximately 90% percent of the time. A ten-day, or longer, forecast is only right about half the time[v].
The weather severity largely unpredicted, it has been an adventurous few days, as my land has seen a serious snowfall. Perhaps in Scandinavia they would think nothing of it, but in England snowfall is a drama. Perhaps the old wives’ tales that I had pondered a few weeks ago had been right. I had seen plenty of red haws on the hawthorns, a pile of red drupes on the hollies, and the geese had migrated south earlier than I had expected. Any one of these observations represents an old wives’ tale for a cold winter ahead. My land had a perfect storm of all three. The snowstorm was assured, and I needed no weather forecaster to tell me. Nature said all. What I cannot fathom is how Nature knew so far ahead what was likely to happen in the future. Our weather forecasters are armed with the latest and best technology that money can buy, yet they lagged behind holly trees, hawthorns, and migrating geese.
I watched as large flakes, then small flakes, then sizes in between fluttered to the ground and lay, thanks to the earlier frosts that had frozen the soil, and had given me sleepless nights about whether I should transplant saplings. Those I have transplanted are now largely buried, so Heaven knows how they will fare in the months and years ahead. Within 24 hours I had watched 20cms of snow falling. The definition of a heavy snowfall, and when warnings are issued, is when 20cms or more of snow falls within 24 hours[vi]. My land now looks akin to a shipwreck, and I can see there will be plenty to keep me occupied over the days and weeks ahead. In addition, and plants apart, it seems to take me forever to clear a path through snow with one paltry snow shovel, and I am discovering muscles that I never realised I possessed. Thankfully I do not have chionophobia[vii], the proper word for a fear of snow, although I do have a fear of the work involved in clearing it. As best I am aware there is no word coined for that phobia as yet.
The snowfall has taught me plenty. Most obvious is the advantage of being a conifer tree in the snow. As the flakes fell, amassing layer by layer, the downward sloping limbs of my conifers came into their own, as did their smooth and waxy needles[viii]. The snow simply slid off. Unlike my broad-leafed evergreens, for example rhododendrons[ix] and bamboo[x], that appeared to hold the snow until the entire plant either bent or broke. Twenty-four hours later, when the snowfall had ceased, many of the plants that had been effective boundary barriers were so squashed, that the boundary barely existed. My land, normally well hidden, suddenly became exposed. Snow is surprisingly heavy. On average, a cubic metre of freshly fallen snow weighs roughly 50kg[xi]. No wonder plants can collapse and break, or roofs fall in. Snow may look attractive but beneath this façade lurks a monster seeking trouble. That is despite humans often loving it, as do dogs[xii], and both species frolicking the moment snow appears.
The snow has also shown me that I should not shelter indoors until a snowstorm is over, as by then it will be too late. Next time I will go outdoors intermittently and gently shake the at-risk broad-leafed evergreens. This will allow the snow to fall to the ground, so there is less chance of a branch breaking, or an evergreen being squashed flat.
As the thaw begins, and that seems to be happening, I have noticed that snow on short grass melts faster than snow on long grass and for a while have wondered why. I suspect it is thanks to several things. For example, surface area and insulation. Long grass has a larger surface area and can trap more air within its structure. This trapped air acts as an insulator, keeping the snow colder and slowing down the melting process. Short grass has less surface area and less trapped air, so provides reduced insulation, which allows the snow to melt faster. Then there is sunlight. Snow on short grass is more exposed to sunlight. Sunlight is a critical factor in melting snow, as it provides the necessary heat. In the case of long grass, the blades partially shield the snow from direct sunlight, reducing the amount of heat it receives, and slowing the melting process. Ground heat is also a factor. The ground emits heat, which can help in melting snow. Short grass allows more of this heat to reach the snow compared with long grass. The longer blades of grass can act as a barrier, reducing the amount of heat that reaches the snow from the ground. Then there is colour and the albedo[xiii] effect. The colour of an underlying surface can influence snow melting. Darker surfaces absorb more heat, and lead to speedier snow melting. If short grass exposes more of the darker ground, it can lead to quicker melting compared with long grass. Long grass keeps the ground more covered and less able to absorb heat. In brief, if you like the look of snow, and wish to delay its melting, keep your grass long.
One feature of a decreasing temperature is that every living item suffers, not just mankind. During the snowfall I went into one of my storage huts, to find that a robin[xiv] had already made its home there. Meanwhile the venting pipe for my boiler attracts anything and everything looking for warm air. I even saw a blackbird[xv] two days ago when I thought they were migratory. It appears that blackbirds are only partially migratory within the UK - for example, Scottish populations visit Northern Ireland - and strongly migratory within Europe, with birds from Scandinavia and the Baltics joining the UK’s blackbirds in winter. If a UK blackbird does migrate it will generally only travel up to 100 miles from its breeding grounds. Frequently it will only go as far as just down the road[xvi].
For the past 12 months odd things have been happening that I find difficult to explain. One is a complete absence of jackdaws[xvii], when I have normally been overwhelmed by the bird, and watched while it has terrorised birdfeeders and blocked up chimneys. I am not alone, it seems[xviii]. Sometimes jackdaws just disappear and there is no logical explanation. As best I am aware, the bird is not in danger. It may also have something to do with the building taking place around me. Down comes a tree, in comes an earthmover, added to the deafening sound of a stone saw, and all wildlife disappears. Another house is built, but at the expense of Nature.
Jackdaws have a strong association with folklore. It was once thought that when the bird visited, it was a portent of death. Meanwhile encountering a jackdaw on the way to a wedding was a good omen. Jackdaws were once believed to have originally been white. A legend among early Christians declared that corvids - crows[xix], ravens[xx], rooks[xxi], magpies, jackdaws, jays[xxii], choughs[xxiii], and nutcrackers[xxiv] - were indeed originally white, but took black plumage in mourning after the Crucifixion. Magpies[xxv] were an exception, as they were too busy pilfering to grieve properly, so turned only partially black[xxvi].
To add to my lengthening list of damaged wildlife, and at the risk of being regarded as some hidden voyeur, I have not seen any slugs mating on my land this year. Formerly it was very common but presently it is different. To watch slugs mate is like witnessing life in slow motion, and not especially exciting, as the two hermaphrodites intertwine penises, wait a while, and then slither into the undergrowth to lay their eggs. Dry summers are said to reduce the number of slugs[xxvii], and by inference the amount of slug mating, but this year was apparently 11% wetter than the norm[xxviii]. Meanwhile, slugs adore moisture[xxix], so by my reckoning there should be mating slugs stretching into the distance. Sadly not. Perhaps it was the month of June, which was particularly dry, and might have decimated the slugs. Indeed, one way of deterring them is to drain the land[xxx]. Indeed, I saw plenty of slugs in May, but certainly no slug mating. Slugs are also adept at surviving freezing conditions and very low temperatures, such as we are presently experiencing, so it is unlikely that the snow around me will have a negative impact on the slug population[xxxi].
Thanks to my entomological survey, which has told me a lot about my land, it may be that the lack of mating slugs is related to an increasing insect population. I now have the evidence that my renaturing is proving beneficial to insects, and should be maintained and encouraged, but this may be at the expense of mating slug. There are certainly beetles that can find and kill slug eggs, so it is possible insects are to blame, but in truth I do not know. Whatever the reason for the decline in mating slugs, and I am serious, it is evident that we should take slugs more seriously, especially as they are no longer classified as pests[xxxii].
The other day I was on my land clearing yet more wood deadfall, plus a drift of snow, and a padre walked past, enjoying something of the fresh air. I believe he was between services and needed to clear his mind. We got talking, as is the way in Lakeland when ten words will be used even if only one is needed. I am frequently accused of being able to talk for my country. On this occasion, I was chatting about renaturing, snow, and environmental collapse, while the padre was talking religion. Somehow the topics matched.
“The holy books support your renaturing,” said the padre.
I shrugged, as I am unfamiliar with religious literature, but then the padre explained. He was knowledgeable about many different religions, not just his own Christianity, and had plenty to say. Particularly so, because many of the world's faiths have principles that resonate with the ethos of renaturing. For example, within the Vedic scriptures of Hinduism, such as the Rig Veda, Nature is held in high regard. There are plenty of sayings to support this:
"Do not cut trees because they remove pollution[xxxiii]"
"Do not disturb the sky and do not pollute the atmosphere[xxxiv]”
"One should protect the habitation[xxxv]"
So far so good.
Meanwhile Christianity, with its huge following, has always had a mixed relationship with Nature. Some interpretations have favoured human dominance[xxxvi], but there are numerous teachings that emphasise the importance of caring for the natural world. Pope Francis, in his 2015 encyclical letter Laudato Si’[xxxvii], urged the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics to act on climate change and environmental degradation, declaring:
“...to commit a crime against the natural world is a sin against ourselves and a sin against God”.
With the Pope on side, that is even better.
Islam supports Nature, as do Buddhism, Judaism, and plenty of indigenous religions. All faiths agree that the creation of Earth is an act of divinity and should be treated as such. Spiritual leaders are thus critical to the success of global solidarity to protect the environment. Even for hopeless church attendees such as me, there is a need for religious personalities to become more involved, display their own sustainable behaviours, and serve as role models to the rest of us[xxxviii]. I said as much to the padre, and it was evident he agreed.
One hour later, the padre and I had finished chatting, although we might easily have continued until night-time. With a nod the holy man was off, and I watched him pace slowly up the hill and away from me. It was clear that all religions worldwide supported Nature, without exception.
It was also clear that my renaturing had to continue, whatever the doubts held by others.
***
Acknowledgement
Take it from me - none of this would be possible without the help of RSG Horticulture. Rufus, who runs it, has far more energy than me and is full of ideas and skills. Do contact him through https://www.rsghorticulture.com.
Hashtags
#ClimateChangeChaos #UnpredictableWeather #NatureKnowsBest #WeatherForecastFail #StanfordClimateResearch #MetOfficeAccuracy #SnowfallInEngland #OldWivesTalesWeather #NatureVsForecasters #ConiferAdvantage #SnowDamage #SnowWeightDanger #RenaturingStrategies #SnowThawMysteries #WildlifeInWinter #JackdawFolklore #SlugLifeCycle #EnvironmentalSpirituality #ReligionAndRenaturing #EcoTheologyDiscussion
References
[i] Earthquakes around the British Isles in the last 60 days. See https://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/earthquakes/recent_uk_events.html. Accessed 7 December 2023.
[ii] Sheshadri A, Borrus M, Yoder M, Robinson T. Midlatitude error growth in atmospheric GCMs: The role of eddy growth rate. Geophysical Research Letters. 2021 Dec 16;48(23):e2021GL096126.
[iii] Garthwaite J. Climate of chaos: Stanford researchers show why heat may make weather less predictable. 14 December 2021. See https://news.stanford.edu/2021/12/14/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable/. Accessed 7 December 2023.
[iv] How accurate are our public forecasts? See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/accuracy-and-trust/how-accurate-are-our-public-forecasts#:~:text=The%20Met%20Office%20is%20rated,the%20other%20digital%20brands%20surveyed. Accessed 7 December 2023.
[v] How reliable Are weather forecasts? See https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/#:~:text=The%20Short%20Answer%3A,right%20about%20half%20the%20time. Accessed 7 December 2023.
[vi] Heavy snow. See https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=heavy%20snow#:~:text=Heavy%20Snow%20Warning,hours%20is%20imminent%20or%20occurring. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[vii] 10 facts about snow. See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/10-facts-about-snow#:~:text=The%20deepest%20snow%20ever%20recorded,of%201.65%20metres%20was%20recorded. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[viii] 10 things you didn't know about conifers. 1 October 2020. See https://forestryandland.gov.scot/blog/conifer-week-2020#:~:text=Most%20conifers%20are%20ideally%20designed,to%20help%20snow%20slide%20off. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[ix] See weeks 2, 9, 26, and 33 entries.
[x] See weeks 10, 26, and 44 entries.
[xi] Snow density and volume. https://spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov/earth/89Mod11Prob2.pdf. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xii] Kelley TL. Why do dogs love snow? 16 November 2022. See https://sports.yahoo.com/why-dogs-love-snow-because-231651807.html#:~:text=Dogs%20like%20snow%20for%20many,Caring%20Behavior%20in%20Frederick%2C%20Colo. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xiii] Albedo. The term is derived from the Latin albus meaning 'white' and is either determined by a value between 0 and 1 or a percentage value. The more reflective a surface is the higher the albedo value. Very white surfaces, such as fresh snow, reflect a very high fraction of incoming radiation back to space. Darker surfaces such as water, forests or asphalt have a much lower albedo and more of the sun's energy is absorbed. See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/albedo. Accessed 8 December 2023.
[xiv] See 5, 17, 17, 45, and 46 entries.
[xv] See weeks 5, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 19, and 24 entries.
[xvi] Do blackbirds migrate? 25 April 2022. See https://birdfact.com/articles/do-blackbirds-migrate. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xvii] Jackdaw (Corvus monedula). This is a small, black crow with a distinctive silvery sheen to the back of its head. Its pale eyes stand out from its plumage. The Jackdaw's call – a familiar hard 'tchack' – gives it its name. It will often nest in chimneys, buildings, rock crevices and tree holes. See https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/jackdaw. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xviii] No jackdaws this year? See https://community.rspb.org.uk/wildlife/f/wildlife-questions/86135/no-jackdaws-this-year. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xix] See seeks 1, 17, and 45 entries.
[xx] Raven (Corvus corax). The common raven is a large all-black bird, a member of the crow family. It is massive – the biggest member of the crow family. Look for its large bill and long wings. In flight, it shows a diamond-shaped tail. Ravens breed mainly in the west and north although they are currently expanding their range eastwards. Most birds are residents, though some birds – especially non-breeders and young birds – wander from their breeding areas but do not travel far. See https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/raven. Accessed 9 December 2023.
[xxi] See week 24 entry.
[xxii] See week 17 entry.
[xxiii] Wikipedia. Chough. The choughs have black plumage and brightly coloured legs, feet, and bills, and are resident in the mountains of southern Eurasia and North Africa. They have long broad wings and perform spectacular aerobatics. Both species pair for life and display fidelity to their breeding sites, which are usually caves or crevices in a cliff face. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chough. Accessed 9 December 2023.
[xxiv] Nutcracker. Nucifraga caryocatactes. Over 300 Nutcrackers were recorded across Britain & Ireland in 1968, their arrival the result of a large irruptive movement into western Europe from their Siberian home; there have only been a handful of records since. See https://www.bto.org/understanding-birds/birdfacts/nutcracker#:~:text=Over%20300%20Nutcrackers%20were%20recorded,a%20handful%20of%20records%20since. Accessed 9 December 2023.
[xxv] Wikipedia. Magpie. Magpies are birds of the family Corvidae. Like other members of their family, they are widely considered to be intelligent creatures. The Eurasian magpie, for instance, is thought to rank among the world's most intelligent creatures and is one of the few nonmammalian species able to recognise itself in a mirror. They are particularly well known for their songs and were once popular as cagebirds. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magpie. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xxvi] Morton I. 11 things you never knew about the jackdaw, the bird that just loves people. 20 May 2018. See https://www.countrylife.co.uk/nature/jackdaw-bird-just-loves-people-178185#:~:text=They%20were%20once%20thought%20to,wedding%20was%20a%20good%20omen. Accessed 4 December 2023.
[xxvii] Geddes L. Slug numbers appear to shrivel after UK heatwave. See https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/27/slug-numbers-appear-to-shrivel-after-uk-heatwave. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxviii] Summer 2023 in the UK: hot and humid weather. 27 September 2023. See https://uk.blog.sencrop.com/summer-2023-in-the-uk-hot-and-humid-weather/#:~:text=A%20dry%20June...,wetter%20than%20the%20seasonal%20norm. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxix] Kaste AM. The secret lives of slugs: Where do they hide and why do they come out after rain? 9 September 2023. See https://www.sciencenorway.no/animal-kingdom-natural-sciences-pests/the-secret-lives-of-slugs-where-do-they-hide-and-why-do-the-come-out-after-rain/2244207. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxx] Slugs. See https://www.soilassociation.org/media/16046/factsheet-slugs-june-2018.pdf. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxxi] Stone J. Do slugs freeze in winter? 7 March 2017. See https://www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/insects-invertebrates/do-slugs-freeze-in-winter. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxxii] Horton H. ‘Planet friendly’: RHS to no longer class slugs and snails as pests. 4 March 2022. See https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/04/planet-friendly-rhs-to-no-longer-class-slugs-and-snails-as-pests. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxxiii] Rig Veda 6:48:17
[xxxiv] Yajur Veda 5:43
[xxxv] Rig Veda Samhita VI:71:3
[xxxvi] Genesis 1:28: "Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it."
[xxxvii] Encyclical letter. Laudato Si’ of the Holy Father Francis on care for our common home. See https://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html#_ftn16. Accessed 6 December 2023.
[xxxviii] UN environment programme. Religions and environmental protection. See https://www.unep.org/about-un-environment-programme/faith-earth-initiative/religions-and-environmental-protection. Accessed 6 December 2023.
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